The National Football League is a forever evolving league as teams are always on the prowl to gain any possible advantage over the competition. Modern offenses have found their success through the air, headlined by some of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers led an NFL passing revolution, breaking just about every passing record known to man. It wasn’t just those four either. One step below them, we find Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Eli Manning, all of whom have had tremendous careers, each making it to at least one Super Bowl.
Death of the Passing Era
Now, the NFL finds itself going back in time. In 2024, we are seeing the lowest passing numbers in at least 15 years. This season, NFL teams are averaging just 216.54 yards per game, a 15-year low. The same can be said for pass attempts per game at just 32.38 attempts.
To give those numbers context, the NFL passing era seemed to crest in 2015 as teams averaged 243.83 yards passing on 35.84 attempts. That’s a 12.6% dip in passing yards per game. This season isn’t simply an outlier either. The league’s passing numbers have consistently fallen year in and year out.
It’s not just that teams are passing less; they are throwing shorter now than ever as well. This season, the league is on pace for the lowest average depth of target (ADOT) of the decade at just 7.73 yards. Looking back to that same 2016 season, the NFL average was 8.82, just below the decade high of 8.85 yards the season prior.
Return of the Run Game!
Teams are throwing less often and for less yards than we have seen in years. Coincidentally, we are seeing a resurgence of the rushing offenses of old. While not as drastic a change as the dip in passing, rushing numbers are certainly on the upslope.
Teams are averaging 11.26 more rushing yards a game today than they did a decade ago. Running has become more efficient too, averaging 4.41 yards per carry in 2024, compared to just 4.07 yards in 2017. Rush attempts, however, have more or less remained about the same over the course of the decade.
It begs the question, what’s changed? What has caused the death of the NFL passing era?
What caused the Death of the NFL Passing Era?
In the 2010s, it seemed as though 5,000-yard passing seasons had become the new norm. In 2011, the league reached a new peak as three quarterbacks (Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford) managed to cross the once, seemingly, unattainable threshold.
Fast forward seven seasons of high-powered offenses and the football world was flipped upside down upon the arrival of Patrick Mahomes. Almost instantly, Mahomes became the league’s best quarterback, striking fear into the souls of defensive coordinators across the league.
In his first season as a starting quarterback, the 23 year-old from Texas Tech threw for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns. He was legitimately invincible. The NFL had a new public enemy No.1 and his name was Patrick Mahomes. He had to be stopped or at least slowed down.
Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley
That fear, that moment in time, is where our story begins. In steps the duo of Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley. Vic Fangio has always been regarded as one of the best defensive minds in the game. His two head coaching stints didn’t go over so well, however, his prowess as a DC is nearly unmatched.
Fangio is known for his two-high safety looks and light boxes. Its focus, to prevent a dangerous passing attack, potentially sacrificing your run defense in the process. Fangio’s defense allowed for coverages to be more easily disguised and eliminated the deep ball, forcing quarterbacks to play on ‘hard mode.’
In 2019, Fangio’s first season in Denver, he hired Brandon Staley as his Outside Linebackers coach. Staley instantly found success in the Fangio system and was hired to be the defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams just a season later. There, he took Fangio’s system and perfected it.
Brandon Staley’s two-high shell look, combined with Aaron Donald at defensive tackle, was an instant success and a match made in heaven for the Rams. With Donald, Staley could afford to lighten the front seven in order to provide more support for his secondary.
That 2020 Rams’ defense led the NFL in yards allowed, yards per play, passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed and yards per attempt. In nearly every possible defensive and pass defense metric, the Staley defense found itself ranked No.1.
The league took notice and began to adopt the Fangio defense for themselves. Staley was subsequently hired as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers after just one season as a defensive coordinator. Fangio and Staley had cracked the code, shutting down the threat of the deep ball that originally made Mahomes and Josh Allen so scary.
Mahomes
Against the defenses of old, Mahomes relied on his insane arm talent to push the ball downfield. His first season of play in 2018 saw Mahomes rank 6th/39 with a 9.7 ADOT, leading the league with 1,658 yards on deep (20+ yards) passes.
Now that the league has shifted to more two-high looks to prevent the deep ball, Mahomes finds himself on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 37th of 40 quarterbacks with a career low 6.4 ADOT.
Despite the NFL completely changing its defensive structure to shut down Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback remains the NFL’s best. His stats might not be what they once were, however, he and the Kansas City Chiefs are as good as ever. As I write this, they sit atop the AFC, coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins.
What’s next?
How do you combat two-deep safeties? Well, attack them underneath. And that’s exactly what’s happening in today’s game. Motions, screens, quick passes, RPOs, teams are now using everything at their disposable to counter the two-high shells brought on by Fangio and Staley.
#RunDaBawl has also been revived. Dads everywhere are jumping for joy. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry aside, we still aren’t seeing the star running backs we saw back in the day, however, the run game itself is back and how fun it is.
The NFL is in endless cycle of teams trying to counter one another. In order to combat the passing era, defenses shifted their focus to the secondary, shoring up the back end of the defense. Now, to expose the weaker fronts, offenses are utilizing different techniques to take advantage. Soon, we may see another shift as defenses will look to move on from the two-high shells in order to stop the quick game. When that day comes, we may just see the revival of the NFL’s passing era.